Studies and Analysis
Example Studies We Are Conducting or Have Conducted
The Refugee Crisis
The refugee crisis is one of the major humanitarian crises of our time. There are over 41 million people internally displaced, 26 million refugees, 3.5 asylum seekers, and over 5.4 million deaths from ongoing civil wars. We have been studying the refugee crisis since 2015 from multiple perspectives. We have built computer simulations to support the allocation of humanitarian aid to help refugees fleeing crisis countries. We have looked at the possibilities of diplomacy and peacekeeping to resolve the ongoing civil wars that are creating the refugee crisis. The refugee crisis is a long-term problem requiring a long-term durable solution. We believe simulation and analysis can provide insight into the potential of various policies that agencies like the United Nations might implement.
Control of Corruption
Corruption is a significant issue in many developing countries that affects all aspects of civil life. We believe that a systems perspective of the institutional quality in these countries could be a helpful approach to controlling corruption. We have developed a computer simulation that utilizes a database provided by the World Bank on institutional quality in every country of the World. Based on our System Dynamics simulation, we can track the changes in institutional quality in the past and project whether corruption might increase or decrease. There is an opportunity to use the simulator to suggest how to allocate government effort best to control corruption in the future.
COVID-19 and
Trust in Government
In some countries like Canada, the citizens have rallied around their government to control the pandemic. In other countries like Colombia, the citizens distrust their government and have not cooperated with pandemic control initiatives. This distrust has led to a Large-Scale Social Dilemma. We did a comparative analysis of the Canadian and Colombian responses to COVID-19. We concluded that this lack of trust in government might have been a contributor to prolonging the crisis resulting in many unnecessary deaths.
Canada's Oil Sands
Canada faces a conflict of interest when it promotes the Paris Climate Accords yet continues to invest in the Alberta Oil Sands. The Oil Sands will contribute $1 trillion to the Canadian economy and pay $17 in federal and provincial taxes over the next ten years. In 2018, it created or supported 217,000 jobs. On the other hand, the Oil Sands make 12% of Canada's CO2 emissions and 0.2% of the World's. It uses 263 million cubic meters of fresh water annually and takes up 4,800 square kilometres of land. We studied the impact on social, economic, and environmental well-being associated with the Oil Sands. We concluded that the Canadian government must decide whether the social and economic benefits exceed the ecological costs.
Helping Women-of-Colour Entrepreneurs
Over 50% of all small businesses fail before their 5th year of operation, and women-of-colour entrepreneurs face unique challenges when starting and running a small business. We studied women-of-colour entrepreneurs and estimated the rates of a successful exit, failed exit, and continuation of the company at the various stages of their businesses' life. We developed a method to evaluate the factors to improve the women-of-colour chances of success.
Using First Nations Systems Thinking to Operationalize Sustainable Development
This paper offers a unique perspective on sustainable development aligned with the values of a Canadian First Nation. Notably, the primary stocks within the model embody terminology that resonates with the cultural and traditional context of the First Nation, fostering a more meaningful connection to their worldview. We use converters to align the stocks with values specifically relevant to the interests of the First Nation. The ultimate aim of this approach is to enhance acceptance of an operationalized systems thinking model within the community, thereby facilitating a more culturally attuned and impactful understanding of sustainable development.
The Potential Impact of ESG Spending on Public Perception of the Canadian Oil Sands
This study outlines a pivotal transformation facing the oil sands industry in Alberta, Canada, compelled by national and global pressures for greenhouse gas reduction. To ensure its survival, the industry must embrace a 'new normal' marked by increased regulation within its environmental, social, and regulatory governance (ESG) framework. The study proposes four influential perception metrics—First Nations, the Environmental Lobby, Investors, and the General Public—to gauge the industry's alignment with ESG principles. A validated model is constructed to portray oil production, emissions, land use, and impacts on wildlife. We call for the industry to strive for net-zero emissions by 2050 to enhance its standing among stakeholders.
Security Modeling and Simulation
This study emphasizes the fundamental role of modeling and simulation (M&S) in understanding and managing security risks within a system. The sequential process involves modeling the system, identifying associated risks, and integrating security models to mitigate these risks and safeguard value delivery. Examples illustrate the application of M&S to optimize cybersecurity operations, employing conditional probabilities to navigate uncertainties and detect potential threats in the operational environment. This comprehensive approach underscores the pivotal role of M&S in enhancing security measures and maintaining the effective functioning of a system.