Example Studies We Are Conducting or Have Conducted
Participatory Modeling Based on System Dynamics (PM-SD) is leveraged to cultivate science vocations among children and adolescents in Santander, Colombia. Research highlights the power of participatory approaches in fostering STEM engagement, and this initiative integrates research projects, teacher support, and scientific outreach to create a sustainable impact. By collaborating with key stakeholders—institutions, educators, and communities—we demonstrate how Systems Thinking and PM-SD can improve decision-making and address real-world educational challenges.
System Dynamics (SD) modelling is applied to enhance dairy waste management in emerging economies. Many third-world dairy farms underutilize waste that could generate valuable by-products like bio-fertilizer and biogas. Using three years of farm data, our Vensim-based SD model replicates real-life dairy operations to evaluate waste processing scenarios. Findings show that optimizing waste allocation improves economic returns and environmental sustainability, although seasonal constraints remain challenging. This research provides practical insights for policymakers, entrepreneurs, and farm managers, demonstrating how SD simulation can drive sustainable waste management solutions.
Systems Thinking is used as a tool for understanding and addressing corruption. The principle that “Structure Determines Behavior” highlights the need to examine root causes rather than isolated events. Our Physics of Corruption Potential Framework identifies six key attributes that create opportunities for corruption, allowing for targeted interventions without oversimplifying the issue. While high-leverage policies like transparency and ethical standards can reduce corruption, they must be carefully implemented to avoid unintended consequences such as excessive bureaucracy or a culture of fear. This approach underscores the dynamic nature of anti-corruption efforts, emphasizing context-specific strategies that drive meaningful and sustainable change.
Digital Twin (DT) technology and System Dynamics Simulation (SDS) can enhance healthcare decision-making. A Digital Twin creates a real-time virtual replica of physical systems, enabling monitoring, analysis, and prediction. Applying this approach to diabetes management in India, our SDS-based model replicates the public health ecosystem to evaluate policy impacts. Findings indicate a rising diabetes burden, underscoring the need for robust healthcare infrastructure. By integrating DT with SDS, policymakers can test interventions in a risk-free virtual environment, improving personalized care and strategic healthcare planning.
Digital Therapeutics (DTx) uses software-based disease management, treatment, and prevention interventions, representing a significant shift in healthcare. However, adoption is hindered by regulatory, technological, economic, and behavioural challenges. This study applies System Dynamics Modeling (SDM) to explore these dynamics, simulating policy changes, tech improvements, and industry collaboration scenarios. The findings offer valuable insights for DTx developers, healthcare policymakers, and stakeholders aiming to enhance adoption and improve patient outcomes.
Resilience is the ability to withstand and recover from adversity. This paper explores organizational resilience through a case study of a scandal-affected organization facing reputation issues and challenges in recruitment and retention. We propose leadership-driven cultural change policies to rebuild its reputation. A System Dynamics Model combining quantitative and qualitative measures reveals that cultural change is slow, with inertia and significant delays before improvements in recruitment and retention are visible.
This paper examines operational resilience in a network of computer systems, focusing on a cybersecurity team’s response to a cyber-attack. Following the attack, restoring system capability requires sequential processes and team coordination. We analyze an adaptive assignment policy within the cybersecurity team, showing how dynamic task allocation can speed up system restoration, even if full recovery takes time.
The refugee crisis is one of the major humanitarian crises of our time. There are over 41 million people internally displaced, 26 million refugees, 3.5 asylum seekers, and over 5.4 million deaths from ongoing civil wars. We have been studying the refugee crisis since 2015 from multiple perspectives. We have built computer simulations to support the allocation of humanitarian aid to help refugees fleeing crisis countries. We have looked at the possibilities of diplomacy and peacekeeping to resolve the ongoing civil wars that are creating the refugee crisis. The refugee crisis is a long-term problem requiring a long-term durable solution. We believe simulation and analysis can provide insight into the potential of various policies that agencies like the United Nations might implement.
Corruption is a significant issue in many developing countries that affects all aspects of civil life. We believe that a systems perspective of the institutional quality in these countries could be a helpful approach to controlling corruption. We have developed a computer simulation that utilizes a database provided by the World Bank on institutional quality in every country of the World. Based on our System Dynamics simulation, we can track the changes in institutional quality in the past and project whether corruption might increase or decrease. There is an opportunity to use the simulator to suggest how to allocate government effort best to control corruption in the future.
In some countries like Canada, the citizens have rallied around their government to control the pandemic. In other countries like Colombia, the citizens distrust their government and have not cooperated with pandemic control initiatives. This distrust has led to a Large-Scale Social Dilemma. We did a comparative analysis of the Canadian and Colombian responses to COVID-19. We concluded that this lack of trust in government might have been a contributor to prolonging the crisis resulting in many unnecessary deaths.
Canada faces a conflict of interest when it promotes the Paris Climate Accords yet continues to invest in the Alberta Oil Sands. The Oil Sands will contribute $1 trillion to the Canadian economy and pay $17 in federal and provincial taxes over the next ten years. In 2018, it created or supported 217,000 jobs. On the other hand, the Oil Sands make 12% of Canada's CO2 emissions and 0.2% of the World's. It uses 263 million cubic meters of fresh water annually and takes up 4,800 square kilometres of land. We studied the impact on social, economic, and environmental well-being associated with the Oil Sands. We concluded that the Canadian government must decide whether the social and economic benefits exceed the ecological costs.
Over 50% of all small businesses fail before their 5th year of operation, and women-of-colour entrepreneurs face unique challenges when starting and running a small business. We studied women-of-colour entrepreneurs and estimated the rates of a successful exit, failed exit, and continuation of the company at the various stages of their businesses' life. We developed a method to evaluate the factors to improve the women-of-colour chances of success.
This paper offers a unique perspective on sustainable development aligned with the values of a Canadian First Nation. Notably, the primary stocks within the model embody terminology that resonates with the cultural and traditional context of the First Nation, fostering a more meaningful connection to their worldview. We use converters to align the stocks with values specifically relevant to the interests of the First Nation. The ultimate aim of this approach is to enhance acceptance of an operationalized systems thinking model within the community, thereby facilitating a more culturally attuned and impactful understanding of sustainable development.
This study outlines a pivotal transformation facing the oil sands industry in Alberta, Canada, compelled by national and global pressures for greenhouse gas reduction. To ensure its survival, the industry must embrace a 'new normal' marked by increased regulation within its environmental, social, and regulatory governance (ESG) framework. The study proposes four influential perception metrics—First Nations, the Environmental Lobby, Investors, and the General Public—to gauge the industry's alignment with ESG principles. A validated model is constructed to portray oil production, emissions, land use, and impacts on wildlife. We call for the industry to strive for net-zero emissions by 2050 to enhance its standing among stakeholders.
This study emphasizes the fundamental role of modeling and simulation (M&S) in understanding and managing security risks within a system. The sequential process involves modeling the system, identifying associated risks, and integrating security models to mitigate these risks and safeguard value delivery. Examples illustrate the application of M&S to optimize cybersecurity operations, employing conditional probabilities to navigate uncertainties and detect potential threats in the operational environment. This comprehensive approach underscores the pivotal role of M&S in enhancing security measures and maintaining the effective functioning of a system.